Egyptian Take Two: The Ins and Outs of the Struggle for a Constitution

Members of Egypt's Constituent Assembly

The Egyptian crisis has reached another turning point, with the second draft of their constitution. The first draft failed to lead the country for more than a few months. This second one however, may be no better than the first. The draft was highly backed by the Islamic Brotherhood, the organization that focuses the immense influence of Islam in Egypt. While the country is predominantly Muslim, the population has become increasingly aware of the pressure under which minorities have been placed. Specifically women and Christians (about 10% of the population), both of whom were highly oppressed under the old regime controlled by the Islamic Brotherhood; and while this draft appears to have gained popular support, it is the support of a drowning man for any air, no matter how stale.

The frustration of the people has become apparent in almost every measurable way. At polling booths across the nation attendance was phenomenally low, from sparse to actually empty at certain times. Upon questioning, the average citizens appear to have resigned themselves to the passage of the draft. Whatever the details, Egypt is decomposing rapidly without a constitution, and the attitude seems to be anything is better then nothing at this point.

The common people are not the only ones to have voiced discontent with the current government trends. Of the original seventeen highest cabinet officials originally elected, seven have resigned, giving a plethora of reasons from discontent with the president and parliament to simply finding politics unfit for their skills. Whatever the reasons, such a national decomposition does not bode well for the Egyptian people, either now or later. The largest question may be however, if the people are not content, will they be able to make their voices heard, or will they once again resort to violent protests?

While Egypt appears to have made significant strides in gaining stability, it is also acting as a model for the other recently liberated country in the region, Libya. For the connection between Egyptian Constitution, Libyan riots, and the American people, keep reading!

WE

Sources:  http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/26/us-egypt-politics-idUSBRE8BL03X20121226

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/egypts-government-sets-priorities-charter-18066325#.UNufWI59nww

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/29/15545841-crisis-tests-egyptians-constitution?lite

And We're Falling Off Which Cliff?

So what about that Fiscal Cliff?

If your anything like the millions of Americans who listen to public radio or can’t seem to tear themselves away from the television, you’ve probably heard the phrase “fiscal cliff” more than a few times, sometimes praised and frequently condemned. But what exactly is the fiscal cliff?

Projected budget analysis graph. Alternate scenario is
with extension of tax cuts and without program cuts.

                The phrase comes from the shape of the graph which shows the government’s net revenue vs. time. The current prediction, with the end of the Bush tax cuts, a planned increase in tax rates, and the beginning of the program reductions detailed in the Budget Control Act of 2011. These reductions are intended to be widely applied but not to cut too deep, with shallow cuts to nearly every department (a few are immune; veterans affairs, medicare, etc.)

                There is much discussion involving whether or not reaching the fiscal cliff is in fact the safest route for the country. This debate stems from the division on economic theory found in Congress, commonly understood through something called Keynesian theory. John Keynes was an economist who in 1936 published The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. Keynesians argue that in times of recession the government should increase spending, taking a deficit in order to stimulate the economy. More projects, more employment, and more benefits will then push the economy more quickly into surplus.

                Non-Keynesian economists argue that recessions are a time for the government to decrease spending. In a more common sense argument, they argue that the government is the structural backbone of the economy, and in lean times should tighten its belt to control the damage of the recession.

                The true right answer to this question is probably a combination of the two. However, which one will be applied in the coming months and years to America’s economy remains to be seen. Democrats, who favor Keynesianism, currently control both the Senate and the White House, while the non-Keynesian Republicans control the House.

WE

Sources: http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/KeynesianEconomics.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-republicans-dig-in-on-fiscal-cliff-talks/2012/12/13/019a212e-4537-11e2-8061-253bccfc7532_story.html

Mexico: The Cost for Freedom

Name this country: An army of cold faced gangsters marching through the desert, leaving a path of drug addictions and death in their wake, and destroying the hopes of the weak and cowardly government. 

If the first answer into your head was the Republic of Mexico, then you are among the majority of American people. Mexico’s reputation is the curious subject of a kind of media justice with eyes wide to events but blind to perspective.

Reputation. What is it? And how does it come about? We like to think that our national opinions are based on solid facts and hard evidence, but it seems that, ironically, the evidence states otherwise; and in a world where information and semi-anonymous transactions are the name of the game, a serious reputation drop creates casualties.

Mexico. Perhaps one of the most reputation dependent countries in the world with 20 million visitors a year, reputation is a great part of the lifeblood of the Mexican economy. So now that the Mexican reputation has become tied to warring cartels, violent killings and drug wars, it may be time to examine the truth behind these allegations and the real impacts on your visit to what is still the most popular international tourist destination on the west coast.

So why has the Mexican reputation taken such a steep dive in the last few years? The answers to this question and a more precise presentation of geographical perspective will hopefully be understood through the next three articles detailing the Epic Times take on the issue.

WE

Sources:  https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/mx.html

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico

The French Report

                 France.  What is the first word that jumps to your mind? Chances are, its Paris or Love. Not elections.

Participants at French polling station

                However, one of the most significant events to occur in France this year is the election which brought an end to Nicolas Sarkozy’s austere policy plans and ushered in Francois Hollande, running as a socialist; and while this may not immediately seem important to a non-French citizen, this event has global significance. These intersections between us and them will be outlined over the series of a few articles, hopefully explaining:

WHY YOU CARE ABOUT FRENCH ELECTIONS

                France has for many years been a key player in the political and economic worlds, with both a significant GDP and influence in the Eurozone and EU that could not be ignored. However, with the situation overseas growing increasingly dire the country had begun to lose steam and influence, and the austere policies likely in their future seemed to guarantee no refreshment.

                Interestingly, it may be that the more open purse of a socialistic administration will be the saving grace. While governments are generally not the most efficient employers, there are occasions where, historically, they have done some good. While this opinion is not without contention (namely, Roosevelt and the New Deal), it is also clear in this time that there is a problem which no amount of reservation can seem to help.

                So what if this strategy works? France is not the only country suffering, and with few uncontested options available, there are many in Washington who would love to hold a successful example of a socialistic strategy up in the spotlight. With a balance as delicate as our current alignments, there is no doubt that this is significant. After all, it is not only children who play games of follow the leader.

        

   

WE

Sources:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/10/french-legislative-electi_n_1584288.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Elections

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/10/french-parliament-elections-socialist-success 

A Crack in the Foundation

A Crack in the Foundation

                The Economy. The subject of textbooks, global summits, and endless conversations among…. Everybody. For the people of Greece, the trouble in the economy is more than a subject for discussion, but an issue of dire urgency. In a vote last week, not a single party was able to gather enough votes in order to gain control of Parliament and begin the country's movement toward a definitive action. However, the vast majority of votes were cast for parties representing anti-austerity measures.

                While there are a variety of possibilities on the table, the most serious is Greece’s recession from the European Union, and thereby their recession from the use of the Euro. The implications to recession are many, but there are a few that stand out.

Greek protest of Austerity measures

                The first is the drop in the value of the Euro. If Greece recedes, they will almost certainly refuse or default on their massive debts, immediately dropping the Euro’s value and seriously damaging the European banking system. While this would not be a fatal blow to the Euro, this would be a serious setback to the recovery plan of the entire Eurozone, as the value of exports dropped and the cost of exports rose.

                The second impact is the shift in European politics. No country has receded form the union before, and the mindset of the recession may have enormous implications for the future of other countries with serious debt problems. If this is seen as a viable option, then other countries may follow in their footsteps. This impact has far greater long term possibilities then even a sudden drop in the European banking system.

WE

Sources:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17982101

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/14/world/europe/greece-politics/index.html

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/05/13/bloomberg_articlesM3YYVM0YHQ0X01-M3ZVL.DTL

The Euro Crisis

Oh, Europe. The buildings, the traditions … and the protests. It seems every few days there is another announcement of another round of protests hitting the streets, and the financial crisis seems to grow ever worse. But what is actually going on?

The financial drama is currently revolving around two separate figures, with a plethora of smaller players in the mix. Greece and Spain combined make up 10.6% of the EU’s GDP, a significant amount by any estimation. Both of these countries are in considerable distress on a variety of levels, with unemployment levels of 25% and 21%, respectively.

Protesters in Athens decry austerity measures

 The simplest explanation for the situation in Greece may be found in the credit and property busts of 2009, along with an economic plan often referred to as “austerity”, meaning cutting as many government programs and benefits as quickly as possible in order to reduce debt. While this may seem like a good idea in principle, the speed at which the programs were reduced seems to have crippled the economy.

Spain’s problems are similar, though beginning later were somewhat caused by other countries’ crises. It begins, however, with an enormous national debt and a steadily increasing deficit. At the advent of the Euro zone crisis, Spain anticipated difficulty due to a drop in its credit rating. However, the sudden drop in Greece and Portugal’s economy brought the crisis to a sudden head, aggravating an already difficult situation.

In Barcelona, citizens call for change

With the size of the Spanish economy what it is (around $1494 Bil) a bailout the likes of the Greek bailout would simply not be possible, with an EU rescue fund of 1.3 Tril to be used by the entire EU. So far, both the Greek and Spanish response have been severe cuts in government programs and services.

WE

Sources:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304050304577377281097956366.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0501/1224315406818.html

http://business.time.com/2012/05/01/why-we-should-worry-about-spains-economic-pain/

. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/09/greek-debt-crisis-timeline\

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704904604576335131728074142.html

The Egyptian Crisis

July 20, 1969. December 25, 1991. April 6, 1896.

A few of the great firsts in history: Apollo 11 lands on the moon, the USSR breaks apart, and the first modern Olympic Games are held.

                And now, May 23, 2012: The date of the first Egyptian election for President as a “true” democracy.  

                There are a variety of reasons to include these elections among significant events in world history, but one in particular stands out from the crowd. Egypt is not alone. It is only the first.

                In the wake of the Egyptian revolution, several countries have chosen to follow in their footsteps, notable Libya and recently Syria. However, while these countries have won the first battle in their fight for international recognition and lasting stability, their ability to do so is going to depend on an extraordinary number of factors and their ability to control them. This task is by no means easy, and with only the examples from the distant past, the road is unclear, and riddled with obstacles.

            

    For Egypt, these obstacles are beginning to become clear. Corruption is still a major problem, and despite the sweeping reforms enacted, there is little indication that change is coming anytime soon. This is primarily due to a lack of enforcement, a symptom of a greater sickness: overextension.

This malady is one that has plagued fledging governments for eons, and may yet be Egypt’s downfall. In a situation as exceptional as this, however, it is critical that Egypt quickly find its limits, as the eyes of the international community are watching for their victory or downfall, with especially Libyan and Syrian communities anxiously awaiting the outcome of Egypt’s bold venture into the world of independence.

“If they can do it, so can we.”

WE

Sources: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577366553134497664.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17815994

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/25/egypt-corruption-idUSL5E8FN7EB20120425

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2011_Egyptian_revolution

Want to read more on Egypt?
Egypt's Race for Direction
An Unstable Connection

The Syria Conflict: What it means for Your Table

Syria. The name in most people’s minds brings up exotic images of a barren wasteland, covered in desert and strange rock formations a la George Lucas’ Tatooine. The truth however, is far different. The country is far from barren, producing enough food to not only be generally self-sustaining, but to be a significant exporter of a variety of different foods, among them cotton, wheat, and beets.

                So what does that mean for us, the common American? The answer is: maybe a lot, maybe not much. The key to this is seeing how everything is connected. So how is Syria connected to your dinner table?

            
    It starts, of course, with the dollar. One of the ways that the value of the dollar is decided is by how many different countries use the dollar for a trade standard, and thereby to measure debt.

                Syria currently has a fairly massive federal debt, primarily to countries in the EU. Let’s take Poland for example, a country to which Syria owes an amount roughly to a quarter of Syria’s GDP. These countries are currently trading using the dollar.

                The conflict in Syria means a lot for the Syrian government’s ability to pay its debts on time. This is particularly bad timing for this to happen, for one clear reason: Europe is in trouble. The federation is looking at climbing debt and rising unemployment, with Greece leading the pack in trouble, but with many other countries, Poland included, not far behind.

                With one more country falling behind, this is another added burden on a European and thereby world economy that isn’t ready to handle it. And while we may not live in Europe, we cannot untangle our economy from the worlds. The less the Syrian people are putting on the table of Polish families, the more likely it becomes that we will have difficulty putting food on our own tables.

WE

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=94

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Syria

Other Epic Times Articles on Syrian Uprising

Glimmer of Hope

Libya Pitching In!

Out of Darkness

All Bark No Bite

The Syria Conflict: What it means for Your Taxes

In a world of infinite variables, one cannot give too much to any one of them. There are, however, a few that are rather more important than others. In the world of foreign policy and money, any conflict is among those factors.

The current Syrian conflict has recently reached a milestone in the process of coming to a close, in that both sides have accepted and made efforts in following the UN backed peace plan developed and pressed by Kofi Annan, one time Arab-Emigrates dignitary. However, the UN’s implementation system cannot be drawn apart from the US’s, as it relies heavily on the backing of the international community and particularly the United States.

In the conflict in particular, where there have been many signs that not all sides are willing to maintain peaceful negotiations if everything doesn’t go there way, an intervention may be necessary, which in the land of UN policy, means a spear head of US forces.

So who will be footing the bill for such an incursion? The answer is, at least for the US’s part in it, us. The taxpayer will be footing that bill in one of the most direct systems in the entire US financial policy system.  Because the military branch brings in no revenue, or at least not in any significant amount compared to the amount that is spent, it is entirely supported directly by the public fund. That is, you.

Now, does this mean that each of us will be picking up a little Syria tab in these events?

No, or not as such. You will, however, be picking up a heavier burden for years from this and every decision the Feds make that costs any money.

WE

Sources:   http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/hague-hints-at-harder-line-if-regime-shuns-syria-peace-plan-7661680.html

http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/world/pressure-builds-for-tougher-line-as-syria-is-said-to-shun-peace-plan-632357/

Other Epic Times Articles on Syrian Uprising

Glimmer of Hope

Libya Pitching In!

Out of Darkness

All Bark No Bite

The Syria Conflict: What it means for Your Tank

If you’re the kind of person who has been reading the articles, listening to the radio, and watching the endless coverage of the conflict overseas, then you are probably starting to wonder: Is this going to change my life? Are the far reaching arms of war going to come tapping on my door?

The answers are many, but there is a firm ground between them: these events will affect the everyday American. This is the first in a series of articles on what those effects will be.

Let’s start with your tank.

As most people know, a lot of the world’s gas comes from a few countries in the Middle East, of which we shall focus on two, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

Syria has been responsible for putting billions of gallons into the world market every year, making it one of the most important petroleum production centers in the world. So who will make up the deficit, with an unrelenting world demand calling for its tank to be filled?

Several countries, as it turns out, and most notably Saudi Arabia, have stepped up production in order to fill the gap. While this means that, at least for the time being, there will be enough gas to meet the demand, it also means that we can expect prices at the pump to keep rising, as fewer groups have more control over the supply.

Saudi Arabian petroleum companies have promised to attempt to keep the prices stable and at a relatively low level, though it is clear that this is only possible in a limited sense. Also, while Syria was not a large exporter to the United States, Saudi Arabia is, giving this heavy burden an extra edge.

Trans Arabian Pipeline

WE

Sources:  ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sy.html#Econ

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SY

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/29/us-saudi-west-reserves-idUSBRE82S0VO20120329

Image: http://www.wthitv.com/dpp/first_at_5/best-ways-to-maximize-fuel-efficiency

http://peakgeneration.blogspot.com/2011/02/oil-demand-has-met-supply-saudi-arabia.html

Other Epic Times Articles on Syrian Uprising

Glimmer of Hope

Libya Pitching In!

Out of Darkness

All Bark No Bite

Fighting for Survival

             Over 10,000 people have died in Syria since the start of the uprising last year. Everyone would like to see end to the killing in Syria but in spite of calls on president Bashar al-Assad to stop attacking protesters the violence continues. Is this because Assad is just a madman who enjoys ordering the deaths of his people or is there another reason? I believe he has continued the fighting as a matter of survival.

Syria

             This is in part due to a Religious conflict that goes back centuries. President Bashar al-Assad and the ruling Ba’ath party are part of a very liberal sect of  Islam called the Alawites.  Due do differences in their doctrine there has been contention and fighting between the Alawites and other sects of Islam, primarily the Sunnis, throughout history. The many atrocities were committed by both sides, the most recent of which was the massacre 20,000 Sunnis in the city of Hama in 1982. These atrocities give the Alawite leaders of Syria a reason to fear that the primarily Sunni rebels will seek retribution if they manage to topple the current Government.

            Another factor is more purely humanitarian grievances committed by Assad and the Ba’ath party. Syria’s infamous secret police is suspected of being responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Syrians even before the uprising. Since the uprising the deaths of 7,972 civilians at the hands of government troops can be added to that list.

So why don’t Assad and the Ba’ath party end the conflict in Syria? It is because of fears of retaliation. They dare not stop their attacks on the rebels. If they lose this struggle they face being brought to justice for their atrocities either in an international court for crimes against humanity, or at the hands of an angry population.

DC

Sources:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137407/leon-goldsmith/alawites-for-assad

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/14/syrias-ruling-alawite-sect/

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16209665