The Egyptian Crisis

July 20, 1969. December 25, 1991. April 6, 1896.

A few of the great firsts in history: Apollo 11 lands on the moon, the USSR breaks apart, and the first modern Olympic Games are held.

                And now, May 23, 2012: The date of the first Egyptian election for President as a “true” democracy.  

                There are a variety of reasons to include these elections among significant events in world history, but one in particular stands out from the crowd. Egypt is not alone. It is only the first.

                In the wake of the Egyptian revolution, several countries have chosen to follow in their footsteps, notable Libya and recently Syria. However, while these countries have won the first battle in their fight for international recognition and lasting stability, their ability to do so is going to depend on an extraordinary number of factors and their ability to control them. This task is by no means easy, and with only the examples from the distant past, the road is unclear, and riddled with obstacles.

            

    For Egypt, these obstacles are beginning to become clear. Corruption is still a major problem, and despite the sweeping reforms enacted, there is little indication that change is coming anytime soon. This is primarily due to a lack of enforcement, a symptom of a greater sickness: overextension.

This malady is one that has plagued fledging governments for eons, and may yet be Egypt’s downfall. In a situation as exceptional as this, however, it is critical that Egypt quickly find its limits, as the eyes of the international community are watching for their victory or downfall, with especially Libyan and Syrian communities anxiously awaiting the outcome of Egypt’s bold venture into the world of independence.

“If they can do it, so can we.”

WE

Sources: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577366553134497664.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17815994

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/25/egypt-corruption-idUSL5E8FN7EB20120425

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2011_Egyptian_revolution

Want to read more on Egypt?
Egypt's Race for Direction
An Unstable Connection

The Syria Conflict: What it means for Your Table

Syria. The name in most people’s minds brings up exotic images of a barren wasteland, covered in desert and strange rock formations a la George Lucas’ Tatooine. The truth however, is far different. The country is far from barren, producing enough food to not only be generally self-sustaining, but to be a significant exporter of a variety of different foods, among them cotton, wheat, and beets.

                So what does that mean for us, the common American? The answer is: maybe a lot, maybe not much. The key to this is seeing how everything is connected. So how is Syria connected to your dinner table?

            
    It starts, of course, with the dollar. One of the ways that the value of the dollar is decided is by how many different countries use the dollar for a trade standard, and thereby to measure debt.

                Syria currently has a fairly massive federal debt, primarily to countries in the EU. Let’s take Poland for example, a country to which Syria owes an amount roughly to a quarter of Syria’s GDP. These countries are currently trading using the dollar.

                The conflict in Syria means a lot for the Syrian government’s ability to pay its debts on time. This is particularly bad timing for this to happen, for one clear reason: Europe is in trouble. The federation is looking at climbing debt and rising unemployment, with Greece leading the pack in trouble, but with many other countries, Poland included, not far behind.

                With one more country falling behind, this is another added burden on a European and thereby world economy that isn’t ready to handle it. And while we may not live in Europe, we cannot untangle our economy from the worlds. The less the Syrian people are putting on the table of Polish families, the more likely it becomes that we will have difficulty putting food on our own tables.

WE

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=94

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Syria

Other Epic Times Articles on Syrian Uprising

Glimmer of Hope

Libya Pitching In!

Out of Darkness

All Bark No Bite

The Syria Conflict: What it means for Your Taxes

In a world of infinite variables, one cannot give too much to any one of them. There are, however, a few that are rather more important than others. In the world of foreign policy and money, any conflict is among those factors.

The current Syrian conflict has recently reached a milestone in the process of coming to a close, in that both sides have accepted and made efforts in following the UN backed peace plan developed and pressed by Kofi Annan, one time Arab-Emigrates dignitary. However, the UN’s implementation system cannot be drawn apart from the US’s, as it relies heavily on the backing of the international community and particularly the United States.

In the conflict in particular, where there have been many signs that not all sides are willing to maintain peaceful negotiations if everything doesn’t go there way, an intervention may be necessary, which in the land of UN policy, means a spear head of US forces.

So who will be footing the bill for such an incursion? The answer is, at least for the US’s part in it, us. The taxpayer will be footing that bill in one of the most direct systems in the entire US financial policy system.  Because the military branch brings in no revenue, or at least not in any significant amount compared to the amount that is spent, it is entirely supported directly by the public fund. That is, you.

Now, does this mean that each of us will be picking up a little Syria tab in these events?

No, or not as such. You will, however, be picking up a heavier burden for years from this and every decision the Feds make that costs any money.

WE

Sources:   http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/hague-hints-at-harder-line-if-regime-shuns-syria-peace-plan-7661680.html

http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/world/pressure-builds-for-tougher-line-as-syria-is-said-to-shun-peace-plan-632357/

Other Epic Times Articles on Syrian Uprising

Glimmer of Hope

Libya Pitching In!

Out of Darkness

All Bark No Bite

The Syria Conflict: What it means for Your Tank

If you’re the kind of person who has been reading the articles, listening to the radio, and watching the endless coverage of the conflict overseas, then you are probably starting to wonder: Is this going to change my life? Are the far reaching arms of war going to come tapping on my door?

The answers are many, but there is a firm ground between them: these events will affect the everyday American. This is the first in a series of articles on what those effects will be.

Let’s start with your tank.

As most people know, a lot of the world’s gas comes from a few countries in the Middle East, of which we shall focus on two, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

Syria has been responsible for putting billions of gallons into the world market every year, making it one of the most important petroleum production centers in the world. So who will make up the deficit, with an unrelenting world demand calling for its tank to be filled?

Several countries, as it turns out, and most notably Saudi Arabia, have stepped up production in order to fill the gap. While this means that, at least for the time being, there will be enough gas to meet the demand, it also means that we can expect prices at the pump to keep rising, as fewer groups have more control over the supply.

Saudi Arabian petroleum companies have promised to attempt to keep the prices stable and at a relatively low level, though it is clear that this is only possible in a limited sense. Also, while Syria was not a large exporter to the United States, Saudi Arabia is, giving this heavy burden an extra edge.

Trans Arabian Pipeline

WE

Sources:  ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sy.html#Econ

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SY

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/29/us-saudi-west-reserves-idUSBRE82S0VO20120329

Image: http://www.wthitv.com/dpp/first_at_5/best-ways-to-maximize-fuel-efficiency

http://peakgeneration.blogspot.com/2011/02/oil-demand-has-met-supply-saudi-arabia.html

Other Epic Times Articles on Syrian Uprising

Glimmer of Hope

Libya Pitching In!

Out of Darkness

All Bark No Bite

Fighting for Survival

             Over 10,000 people have died in Syria since the start of the uprising last year. Everyone would like to see end to the killing in Syria but in spite of calls on president Bashar al-Assad to stop attacking protesters the violence continues. Is this because Assad is just a madman who enjoys ordering the deaths of his people or is there another reason? I believe he has continued the fighting as a matter of survival.

Syria

             This is in part due to a Religious conflict that goes back centuries. President Bashar al-Assad and the ruling Ba’ath party are part of a very liberal sect of  Islam called the Alawites.  Due do differences in their doctrine there has been contention and fighting between the Alawites and other sects of Islam, primarily the Sunnis, throughout history. The many atrocities were committed by both sides, the most recent of which was the massacre 20,000 Sunnis in the city of Hama in 1982. These atrocities give the Alawite leaders of Syria a reason to fear that the primarily Sunni rebels will seek retribution if they manage to topple the current Government.

            Another factor is more purely humanitarian grievances committed by Assad and the Ba’ath party. Syria’s infamous secret police is suspected of being responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Syrians even before the uprising. Since the uprising the deaths of 7,972 civilians at the hands of government troops can be added to that list.

So why don’t Assad and the Ba’ath party end the conflict in Syria? It is because of fears of retaliation. They dare not stop their attacks on the rebels. If they lose this struggle they face being brought to justice for their atrocities either in an international court for crimes against humanity, or at the hands of an angry population.

DC

Sources:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137407/leon-goldsmith/alawites-for-assad

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/14/syrias-ruling-alawite-sect/

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16209665